Den 6 mars i år svenska myndigheter bordade lastfartyget CAFFA, som seglade under guineansk flagg genom de baltiska sunden i svenskt territorialvatten. Motiveringen var misstanke om brott mot inernationella sjöfartssäkerhetsreglerna.
Enligt ett meddelande från Kustbevakningen den 7 mars har 10 av fartygets 11 besättningsmedlemmar ryskt medborgarskap. Svenska sidan försäkrar att situationen ombord är lugn.
Rysslands Ambassad i Sverige står i kontakt med berörda svenska myndigheter och är beredda att vid behov ge konsulärt stöd till de ryska medborgare som ingår i besättningen.
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19.06
Посольство России в Швеции поддерживает связь с властями страны в связи с задержанием сухогруза Caffa, на котором находятся 10 граждан РФ, сообщило дипведомство.
Береговая охрана при поддержке полиции задержала судно под гвинейским флагом на юге Швеции. По информации SVT, оно следовало из Касабланки в Санкт-Петербург.
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15.10
В Балтийском море шведский спецназ захватил находящийся под украинскими санкциями российский сухогруз Caffa.
Судно под флагом Гвинеи, шедшее из Касабланки в Петербург, остановили в районе Треллеборга.
Сейчас на борту проводятся следственные действия. Шведы обвиняют команду в использовании ложного флага, а само судно называют "судном без гражданства", а безопасность таких судов международным правом не гарантируется. С 2003 года судно называлось UFA, а с 2017 — VETLUGA и все эти годы ходило под российским флагом.
Летом 2025 года флаг судна был сменен с российского на гвинейский. Шведские власти расценивают это как попытку подлога и сокрытия его истинной принадлежности.
Caffa и его команду через какое-то время, скорее всего, отпустят. Но надо признать, что ЕС последовательно наращивает экономическое и логистическое давление на Россию. Недавно еще одно российской судно, танкер Ethera, было задержано Бельгией.
Любой рейс российских коммерческих судов через Балтику и Средиземное море теоретически может закончиться такими задержаниями до выяснения обстоятельств. Россия пока никак этому не противодействует.
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14.28
Европа продолжает охоту на «теневой флот» России.
Шведская береговая охрана с вертолёта высадилась на балкер Caffa у юга Треллеборга. Судно под гвинейским флаг фигурирует в украинских санкционных списках и причисляется к российскому теневому флоту. По сообщениям шведских СМИ, он шёл с зерном из Касабланки в Петербург. Сейчас балкер стоит под контролем шведов, пока идёт юридическая и техническая проверка, выход из шведских вод ему закрыт.
Вот вам и «всего лишь один танкер», который захватили американцы. Европа узаконила пиратство и теперь охотится на суда, которые так или иначе связывает с Россией. Причем даже на те, которых нет ни в каких санкционных списках.
Как, например, контейнеровоз Baltic Spirit под багамским флагом, шедший из Эквадора в Петербург. В феврале его остановили просто по формальному поводу - подозрение в контрабанде. После жёсткого досмотра в порту Мууга наркотики не нашли, и судну разрешили уйти. Издержки и потерянную выгоду, разумеется, возмещать никто не собирается.
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13.48
Добрались и до сухогрузов📝
Ни дня без атак на российское торговое судоходство. Судно российского теневого флота вчера перехватили у южных берегов Швеции, о чем уже поспешили радостно сообщить в береговой охране страны.
Судно Caffa шло под флагом Гвинеи из Марокко в Санкт-Петербург с мандаринами на борту. По данным СМИ, до лета 2025 года сухогруз ходил под флагом РФ и вывозил зерно из Крыма. Из-за этого оно попало в санкционные списки.
🖍Происходит ровно то, о чем мы говорили еще на заре первых атак на суда под российским флагом или другим, но перевозящим грузы в Россию. Давление усиливается, и вчерашнее задержание это наглядно показывает. Даже сухогрузы теперь не в безопасности.
🚩К чему это ведет? Дальнейшее судоходство для России на Балтике станет все более опасным, поскольку реакции на действия европейских стран в отношении наших судов попросту нет. А бездействие расценивают как слабость и расширяют атаки.
❗️Без соответствующих мер все будет лишь усугубляться, и Балтика превратится в изолированное море НАТО. Далее по такому же сценарию доберутся и до Средиземного моря, где атаки учащаются. А в среднесрочной перспективе и на Калининград аппетиты станут более отчетливыми.[/url]
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12.43
В Швеции силовики провели масштабную операцию по задержанию судна, которое может быть связано с Россией. Летом прошлого года оно перевозило зерно из Крыма в Сирию — SVT
Береговая охрана Швеции при поддержке полиции задержала сухогруз Caffa, следовавший под флагом Гвинеи. Корабль был задержан в Балтийском море у берегов Треллеборга на юге Швеции. В операции под названием «Черный кофе» были задействованы вертолеты, один из них приземлился на сухогруз. Как отмечает ведомство, Caffa находится в санкционном списке Украины и, предположительно, напрямую связано с РФ. Украинские власти обвиняют судно в причастности к перевозке зерна из Севастополя в Сирию в июле 2025-го.
Судя по данным сервиса отслеживания судов Starboard, оно следовало из Касабланки (Марокко) в Санкт-Петербург, куда должно было прибыть 10 марта. Береговая охрана Швеции заподозрила судно в нарушения Закона о морском судоходстве: власти считают, что корабль непригоден к плаванию. Все следственные действия идут в море, проводятся обыски, опрашивается экипаж, уточнил пресс-секретарь Береговой охраны Швеции Маттиас Линдхольм.
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0.50
Береговая охрана Швеции задержала в Балтийском море грузовое судно CAFFA, якобы связанное с теневым флотом России.
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0.31
У берегов Швеции задержано грузовое судно Caffa под гвинейским флагом, сообщила береговая охрана.
По словам министра гражданской обороны, Caffa находится в санкционном списке Украины.
За три месяца зимы, Украина потратила 700 зенитных ракет для системы Patriot. Это столько же, сколько США и их союзников потратили ракет за несколько дней войны с Ираном, что ставит под угрозу новые поставки Киеву, сообщил еврокомиссар по обороне Андреус Кубилюс.
По его словам, за зиму Украине понадобилось около 700 ракет-перехватчиков PAC-3 для Patriot, при том что за весь 2025 год, американская компания-производитель Lockheed Martin смогла выпустить лишь 600 таких ракет. Большой расход ракет-перехватчиков связан ещё и с тем, что за весь 2025 год Россия нанесла более чем 2000 ракетных ударов по Украине, а для перехвата баллистической ракеты необходимо несколько зенитных ракет.
"Американцы не смогут обеспечить достаточное количество этих ракет для стран Персидского залива, для их собственной армии, а также для Украины. Ситуация действительно критическая. Нам необходимо очень срочно и очень быстро нарастить производство ракет", - заявил Кубилюс.
Издание Wall Street Journal приводит мнение, что Россия использует образованную дефицитом зенитных ракет брешь в украинской ПВО, нанося удары по энергетической инфраструктуре. А война на Ближнем востоке истощает запасы ракет для Patriot у союзников США в регионе. За несколько первых дней войны, для отражения иранских обстрелов страны Персидского залива потратили сотни ракет.
Издание считает, что при сохранении темпов обстрелов, США могут быть вынуждены перебрасывать свои запасы зенитных ракет с других направлений.
Russia supplying Iran with intelligence to target US forces, says report.
Moscow is rushing to the support of its ally amid a joint US-Israeli bombing campaign.
Russia is providing Iran with intelligence to help target US forces in the Middle East, according to a report, in a development likely to cause a rift between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin.
Since the beginning of the war last Saturday, Moscow has been supplying Iran with the locations of US military assets, including warships and aircraft, three officials told The Washington Post.
The conflict has already spread far beyond the Middle East as Iran retaliates against US bases in the region, with attacks reported as far as Azerbaijan and Sri Lanka.
Russia has condemned the conflict as an “unprovoked act of armed aggression” by the US and Israel despite its own brutal ongoing invasion of Ukraine. Moscow has warned that it will mean “forces will emerge in Iran… in favour of doing exactly what the Americans want to avoid – acquiring a nuclear bomb”.
But exactly how far it has assisted Iran with its targeting is not entirely clear. Officials told the Post that the Iranian military’s ability to locate US forces has been degraded in just one week of fighting.
And US forces have shown no sign of letting up, after joint strikes with Israel have killed at least 1,200 people in Iran, according to Iranian authorities.
Mr Trump has warned there will be “no deal with Iran except unconditional surrender” in his latest rant, as the Middle East is embroiled in the seventh day of a deadly conflict.
“There will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER,” the president wrote on Truth Social on Friday.
“After that, and the selection of a GREAT & ACCEPTABLE Leader(s), we, and many of our wonderful and very brave allies and partners, will work tirelessly to bring Iran back from the brink of destruction, making it economically bigger, better, and stronger than ever before.”
US secretary of defence Pete Hegseth said the “amount of firepower over Iran and over Tehran is about to surge dramatically”, adding: “When we say more to come, it’s more fighter squadrons, it’s more capabilities, it’s more defensive capabilities, and it’s more bomber pulses more frequently.”
Any reports regarding potential Russian involvement in the war could affect Trump’s relationship with Putin, with whom he has held far warmer ties than his predecessors in the White House. Trump has consistently sided with Putin over the war in Ukraine.
White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said the Iranian regime “is being absolutely crushed” without commenting on potential Russian involvement.
“Their ballistic missile retaliation is decreasing every day, their navy is being wiped out, their production capacity is being demolished, and proxies are hardly putting up a fight.”
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В Украине уже к апрелю может возникнуть дефицит топлива, если война с Ираном затянется, заявил глава Комитета Рады по вопросам налоговой политики Даниил Гетманцев.
«Необходимо обратить внимание на прогноз одного из ведущих американских банков JPMorgan Chase & Co относительно перспектив добычи нефти в странах региона. По мнению аналитиков этого финансового гиганта, если движение через пролив будет заблокировано, основные производители на Ближнем Востоке будут поддерживать добычу нефти максимум 25 дней. А затем будут вынуждены значительно сократить производство. Такой сценарий обещает новые серьезные проблемы для мировой экономики. И в этом случае мы можем столкнуться не просто со спекулятивным ростом цен, а даже с реальным дефицитом топлива. По мнению экспертов украинского рынка топлива, ситуация с дефицитом топливно-смазочных материалов может возникнуть у нас в стране уже в апреле месяце», - пишет Гетманцев.
Также он призвал уже сейчас «стимулировать заключение долгосрочных контрактов на поставку нефтепродуктов ключевыми операторами рынка. В частности, "Укрнафтой". Стоит изучить возможности для формирования стратегического резерва нефтепродуктов в партнерских соседних странах».
Тем временем, как сообщает Bloomberg, движение судов через Ормузский пролив практически остановилось.
Единственные крупные танкеры, пересекающие его связаны с Ираном.
Согласно данным отслеживания судов, за последние 24 часа один связанный с Ираном супертанкер покинул Персидский залив. В противоположном направлении в него вошел иранский танкер для перевозки сжиженного нефтяного газа. Оба судна находятся под санкциями США.
Невозможность беспрепятственного движения нефтяных танкеров в Персидском заливе и из него приводит к заполнению резервуаров для хранения в странах Персидского залива.
Ирак был вынужден сократить добычу, Кувейт последовал его примеру, в то время как Саудовская Аравия перенаправляет экспорт на терминалы в Красном море.
Напомним, вчера цены на нефть достигли 93 долларов за баррель.
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В поисках «иранской Дельси». Итоги первой недели войны в Иране и ее перспективы.
Неделю назад США и Израиль напали на Иран, убив верховного лидера страны аятоллу Хаменеи, его сподвижников, многих других военных и гражданских лиц, включая, как уже признают и американские СМИ, более 150 девочек в школе в городе Минаб.
Мы уже писали, что война в Иране будет иметь решающее значение с точки зрения новой имперской стратегии США по сохранению своего глобального доминирования через демонтаж миропорядка, основанного на международном праве и замене его на торжество «права сильного».
Американцы рассчитывают, что они, как обладатели самый мощной в мире армии и флота, смогут с их помощью диктовать экономические и прочие условия всему миру, ограничивая развитие тех стран, которые они считают своими главными врагами и конкурентами. В первую очередь Китая, но не только. Европу также в рамках этой стратегии ничего хорошего не ждет.
Для реализации данного плана США нужен контроль над основными запасами ресурсов на планете. Первая и очень успешная «проба пера» была в Венесуэле, которая покорилась Вашингтону после похищения президента Мадуро. Следующий удар был нанесен по Ирану с целью взять под контроль его запасы нефти, а заодно и окончательно зацементировать американское доминирование на Ближнем востоке и в зоне Персидского залива, пресекая «боковые влияния» со стороны Китая и других игроков.
Далее, опираясь на такую базу можно будет уже диктовать условия и Китаю (угрожая блокадой поставок энергоносителей), окончательно поставить в зависимость Европу, а также вести торговую войну с РФ, вытесняя ее нефть и газ с мировых рынков и также принуждая Москву принимать условия Вашингтона.
Мы уже писали, что все это чревато прямым столкновением США с РФ и КНР с угрозой ядерной войны.
Но, в любом случае, путь к такой перспективе лежит через подчинение Ирана американцам, за что сейчас и идет война.
Провал планов подчинения Ирана (например - вынужденная остановка его обстрелов Израилем и США без достижения поставленных целей) будет означать поражение Вашингтона и поставит на грань краха всю его новую геополитическую стратегию.
Поэтому ставки крайне высоки и воплотить задуманное Трамп постарается любым способом.
Однако, неделя войны показала, что Иран не пал в один день и продолжает сопротивление.
Поэтому сейчас США, продолжая вместе с Израилем нанесение массированных ударов по Ирану, одновременно пытаются реализовать три сценария.
Первая – попытаться найти силы в регионе, которые возьмут на себя задачу наземного вторжения в Иран, которое не могут осуществить сами американцы в виду отсутствия в регионе достаточного количества американских сухопутных войск (в отличие от ситуации с войнами 1991 и 2003 годов с Ираком). Однако с этим есть сложности…
Второй – вызвать дестабилизацию внутри Ирана через протесты и бунт части силовиков и нацменьшинств. Пока признаков успеха этого проекта не наблюдается, хотя работа в данном направлении продолжается.
Третий - реализовать «сценарий Дельси Родригес» в Иране. То есть, после смерти Хаменеи привести к власти нового лидера, который примет все условия Трампа. На это прямо намекает сам президент США. Он сказал, что его устроит и религиозный лидер, который будет готов договариваться с американцам. То есть, речь идет о фактическом сохранении прежнего режима аятолл, но выполняющего все указания Вашингтона. Насколько этот путь реальный судить сложно, потому что информации о происходящем сейчас внутри иранских элит немного. В основном, на эту тему пишут западные, арабские и иранские оппозиционные источники. Они сообщают о борьбе радикального крыла, которое представляет КСИР и сын Хаменеи Моджтаб - один из кандидатов на роль нового лидера Ирана, которого Трамп уже назвал «неприемлемым», а также реформаторскими кругами, к которым, в частности, относят президента Пезешкиана и которые, по версии СМИ, готовы к «сделке» с американцами.
Насколько такая картина достоверна судить трудно. Хотя почву для обсуждения темы раскола в элитах дало и сегодняшнее заявление Пезешкиана, который извинился перед странами Персидского залива за ракетно-дроновые атаки и пообещал более удары не наносить, если не будет более атак на Иран с их территории. Но что на самом деле значит это заявление, будет ли оно вообще реализовано на практике, как сложится новый расклад в иранском руководстве и изменит ли он курс страны в отношении США пока говорить рано. Хотя, судя по заявлениям Трампа, у него на «венесуэльский сценарий» есть большие надежды.
Война в Иране уже задала много глобальных экономических и геополитических трендов.
Применительно к войне в Украине, как мы уже писали, практически все из них позитивны для Кремля и негативны для Киева.
Рост цен на нефть укрепляет бюджет РФ и ослабяет бюджет Украины.
Перебои с поставками энергоносителей из Персидского залива усиливают значение для Китая отношений с РФ, а также могут создать предпосылки для разворота курса Европы к нормализации отношений с Москвой.
Соответственно, повышается роль и значение России и для США. Особенно в плане недопущения укрепления союза Пекина и Москвы.
Плюс к тому снижается внимание Запада в целом к войне в Украине. Может иссякнуть поток военной поддержки, а в перспективе и финансовой (если рост цен на нефть будет продолжительным и нанесет серьезный экономический ущерб Европе).
Но пока это все еще скорее наметки на тренды. Для того, чтоб они превратились в устойчивую тенденцию нужно, чтоб война затянулась надолго.
Хотя даже если она закончится в ближайшее время (причем вне зависимости от того – успехом ли для США, либо их отступлением без достижения поставленных целей) последствия будут.
Во-первых, в плане усиления значения РФ для Китая, как единственного гарантированного источника снабжения сырьем. А значит – усиления значения Москвы и для США.
Во-вторых, в плане усиления разногласий между Штатами и Европой, а также внутри самого ЕС в отношении Америки.
В-третьих, еще в большей степени девальвируются понятие «международное право», на котором строят свою позицию Украина в противостоянии с РФ. Девальвируется, к сожалению, и цена человеческой жизни. Фото разрушений и жертв в украинских городах в мировой повестке в последнюю неделю «тонут» в потоке фото и видео разрушений и жертв в Иране, Ливане и в других странах Ближнего востока.
И это, конечно, будет иметь прямое значение и для войны в Украине. Поэтому вопрос о ее скорейшем окончании становится ещё более важным.
It’s too dangerous to see my own children, Ukraine’s president Zelensky admits.
Zelensky is tired, defiant, misses his family and may not run again as president, but first Ukraine has to win peace, the country’s leader tells the ‘World of Trouble’ podcast with world affairs editor Sam Kiley.
How often does the man who is the prime target of his neighbour’s assassins, has survived numerous plots to kill him, and lives under bombardment, see his family.
The answer for Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky is “not much”.
But that is also the lot of hundreds of thousands of soldiers in his country and the millions of children who, like his own, go to school, or take courses at home because Vladimir Putin wants them dead too.
“Our children at school, they study and they have to run very quickly to shelters,” Zelensky told The Independent’s World of Trouble podcast in an exclusive interview.
“They have to do it. It doesn’t matter where they study, in the capital or closer to the front line, because the missile is not choosing where to go. They just bring destruction… So that’s why all our children are in danger.”
olodymyr Zelensky with his wife and children, pictured before the Russian invasion (Instagram)
As a result, Zelensky spends little time with his wife, Olena Zelenska, or his son Kyrylo. The boy has just turned 13, but has spent his entire life living in a country invaded by Russia when he was just a baby. The couple also have a 21-year-old daughter Oleksandra.
Zelensky said he has little time to spend with his family because of his job and rarely visits them because “it is also dangerous”.
They live in a secret location, as does he. But his movements, he knows, are subject to intense scrutiny and spying by Russia’s intelligence services, which have been behind at least 11 plots to kill him.
Along with his family, he was also targeted by Russian special forces and FSB units sent by the Kremlin to, literally, decapitate Ukraine’s leadership, but refused offers from the US to flee into exile and safety.
Now he has to be careful about whoever he visits – even factories and other sites which want a presidential visit rarely get one.
He knows that doing so will make them a target for Russia’s air campaigns, or local proxy attacks involving Ukrainians recruited for money, or by blackmail.
“It is the same for my family – that’s why I try not to go too much to some places,” he told World of Trouble.
Zelensky was elected in 2019 in what may be history’s most vivid example of fact following fiction. In 2015, he created and starred in a TV series called Servant of the People.
Its premise is that a history teacher almost accidentally ended up president of Ukraine after launching an online rant about corruption in the country.
Now Servant of the People is the dominant party in Ukraine’s parliament and a former comedian is the president of a country that, in 2022, was invaded by Vladimir Putin in a full-scale attempt to recolonise its vast resources.
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The last four years have aged the president. He arrived for the online interview looking drawn and tired – but soon warmed to topics and used his easygoing style to project good humour and defiance, which have been both his international style and reflect Ukrainian attitudes more widely.
Zelensky rejected the Putin-style association of himself with the state. And ordinary Ukrainians made sure he understood that last year when they marched in protest at his government’s plans to remove the independence of anti-corruption units.
The protests forced a U-turn on the policy, and some of his closest associates have been implicated, indicted, or fled into exile following high-level multimillion-dollar alleged rackets.
Now running a country under martial law, he is legally unable to call another election until a satisfactory peace has been achieved and the parliament lifts the state of emergency.
Zelensky and his wife, Olena Zelenska, rarely see eachother on account of the ongoing conflict (AFP via Getty)
Would he run again?
“I am not sure that I would,” he told World of Trouble. “Number one, because you can’t be the president whom everybody loves. I understand it. It’s okay. … It’s a pity! But we have to recognise it.
“But I don’t want to be, I don’t want to be the president who is fighting elections but he knows that he's coming last and then uses administrative resources for his campaign”.
He said that in 2019 he did not consult his family about whether to run, believing it to be in the best interests of the country if he did. Now his longer-term priorities have shifted.
“This time, of course, for me, one of the most influential decisions will depend on my family.”
When asked what they had to say about running again, the message to the president appeared very clear: “They say ‘no’.”
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С сожалением и понятными пожеланиями, Dimitriy.
Фрегат Черноморского флота «Адмирал Григорович» (водоизмещение 3620 т, вооружён противокорабельными, крылатыми и зенитными ракетами) прошёл через Ла-Манш, конвоируя два российских танкера «теневого флота». Британский корабль плёлся следом, не решившись на перехват. А журналисты Telegraph откликнулись обескураженным заголовком «Путин издевается над Стармером».
Отличный повод вспомнить вместе с журналом «Родина» Ивана Константиновича Григоровича – отчаянного русского флотоводца!
В ночь на 27 января 1904 года броненосец «Цесаревич» под командованием Григоровича, отразив минную атаку японцев на рейде Порт-Артура, был торпедирован. Но броневая противоминная переборка, отстоявшая на 2 метра от борта, выдержала удар. «Цесаревич» дал крен 17 градусов, но остался на плаву и в таком положении всю ночь отражал атаки противника.
Имя командира "Цесаревича" прогремело на всю Россию. Ночной бой броненосца был запечатлен на красочных плакатах, а портрет Григоровича по праву занял место среди лубочных изображений героев Русско-японской войны. 28 марта 1904 года Григоровича произвели в чин контр-адмирала и в тот же день назначили командиром военного порта Порт-Артур.
Он рьяно организовал работу по ремонту поврежденных кораблей и постановке минных заграждений и даже умудрился построить во время осады подводную лодку!
24 июля во время бомбардировки города японцами Григорович находился в рубке "Цесаревича". Попавшим в рубку 6-дюймовым газовым снарядом адмирал был сброшен с трапа на палубу, контужен и отравлен газами...
Упрямый адмирал был убежден в том, что русский флот следует строить "руками русских рабочих, из русских материалов и на русской территории". Именно построенные еще до революции, при морском министре Григоровиче, корабли встретили в 1941 году Великую Отечественную - 100 процентов линкоров, 40 процентов крейсеров, 30 процентов эсминцев советского ВМФ...
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6.15
The Telegraph: Российский фрегат провёл танкеры через Ла-Манш.
Российский фрегат «Адмирал Григорович» провёл два танкера с нефтью через пролив Ла-Манш. Это произошло через месяц после того, как Кир Стармер пригрозил захватывать российские суда. По мнению издания британский премьер был публично унижен: никаких попыток остановить караван не предпринималось.
«Российский фрегат сопроводил два танкера "теневого флота", в то время как британское военное судно следовало за ними на расстоянии», — сообщает The Telegraph.
Стармер в марте заявил, что отдаст спецназу приказ захватывать российские танкеры. Однако с тех пор Британия не конфисковала ни одного судна. На этот раз Королевский флот лишь наблюдал, как российский военный корабль идёт вдоль южного побережья Англии.
«В прошлом месяце премьер-министр дал спецназу полномочия захватывать армаду ржавых судов, незаконно перевозящих нефть для поддержки войны России на Украине. Однако Британия до сих пор не захватила ни одного российского судна», — отмечает издание.
Россия ответила жёстко. Посол Андрей Келин предупредил, что любые попытки задержания не останутся без ответа.
«Это решение не останется без ответа. Пусть это станет сюрпризом для британского народа», — заявил Келин.
Британские военные эксперты признают: захват каждого танкера нереален. Для этого потребуются огромные ресурсы — морская пехота, спецназ и причалы, которых в Британии просто нет.
«Россияне отчаянно хотят сохранить поток нефти и продолжать войну на Украине. Они водят Стармера за нос прямо сейчас. Если мы действительно хотим помочь Украине, мы должны давить на эти корабли. Это отправило бы сигнал... Это смутило бы Путина. Но сейчас мы не посылаем этот сигнал», — заявил отставной майор парашютного полка Эндрю Фокс.
Консервативная оппозиция уже назвала происходящее «национальным скандалом». Кеми Баденох обвинила Стармера в отсутствии плана по перевооружению армии.
«У нас нет плана того, как правительство будет реально закупать оборудование, оружие и боеприпасы. Кир Стармер — это болтовня без штанов, когда дело доходит до обороны», — заявила лидер консерваторов.
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UK and Norway led a military operation to deter Russian submarines in the North Atlantic.
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British officials have tried to keep Russia in the international spotlight even as the world’s attention is focused on conflict in the Middle East. They have also stressed the overlap between conflicts there and in Ukraine, saying Russia has supplied Iran with drone parts and other support.
Healey told a news conference that “Putin would want us to be distracted by the Middle East,” but Russia is the main threat to the UK and its allies.
“We will not take our eyes off Putin,” he said.
In late March, the UK said its military was ready to seize ships suspected to be part of Russia’s “shadow fleet” of vessels shipping oil in violation of international sanctions over Moscow’s war on Ukraine. Previously, Britain had only helped France and the US monitor ships before they were boarded.
“We are ready to take action” against the vessels, Healey said.
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Moscow threatens to attack Baltic countries allowing Kyiv to use airspace for drones.
Moscow has threatened to attack countries in the Baltic that are allowing Ukraine to use their airspace to fly drones to attack Russia.
Russia’s foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova issued the warning after Kyiv used drones to attack the Baltic ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga, which are key to Moscow’s oil exports.
“If third countries have provided or are providing their territory for enemy drones to fly over, they must fully understand – and we are confident they do, because it has been explained to them – the risks they are exposing themselves to,” she said on Thursday.
Russian drones and aircraft have repeatedly violated European airspace, including fighter jet incursions into Estonia and unidentified drones flying over Copenhagen and Oslo airports.
The Baltic countries — Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania — are Nato members after gaining independence from the Soviet Union in 1991.
Britain's defence minister John Healey said for a month the UK had tracked Russian submarines in the north Atlantic that were a threat to British cables and pipelines.
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UK navy foiled Russian submarines surveying undersea cables, defence minister says.
John Healey says warship and aircraft forced Russia to abandon activity in North Sea in month-long operation.
A British warship and aircraft tracked and monitored Russian submarines trying to survey vital undersea infrastructure in the North Atlantic, ensuring they fled the area, the defence secretary, John Healey, has said.
Speaking at a Downing Street press conference, Healey said the UK operation lasted more than a month and saw a Royal Navy warship and P8 marine patrol aircraft “track and deter any malign activity” by three Russian submarines.
Declining to reveal precisely where the operation took place, Healey said it did not happen in UK territorial waters but in the exclusive economic zone that extends up to 200 nautical miles from the UK coastline, or where it meets the boundary of other nations’ zones.
The submarines were a Russian Akula class nuclear-powered vessel and two deep-sea submarines from Russia’s directorate for deep sea research (Gugi), he added.
The Russian action took place “while the eyes of many were trained on the Middle East” because of the US-Israeli attack on Iran, Healey said.
He added: “I’m making this statement to call out this Russian activity, and to President Putin, I say: ‘We see you. We see your activity over our cables and our pipelines, and you should know that any attempt to damage them will not be tolerated and will have serious consequences.’”
Healey said there was no evidence any pipelines or cables had been damaged, but that UK forces and allies would verify this.
Describing the operation, Healey said: “A Royal Navy warship and Royal Air Force P-8 aircraft alongside allies ensured that the Russian submarines were monitored 24/7.
“The Akula submarine subsequently retreated home, having been closely tracked throughout and we continued to monitor the two Gugi submarines in and around wider UK waters.
“Our armed forces left them in no doubt that they were being monitored, that their movements were not covert, as President Putin planned, and that their attempted secret operation had been exposed. Those Gugi submarines have now left UK waters and headed back north.”
The operation involved 500 UK personnel, he added.
Asked for specifics about how the submarines were tracked and deterred, Healey said sonar buoys were dropped regularly “to demonstrate to them that we were monitoring every hour of their operation”.
He added: “And because we were watching them, we wanted to ensure that we could warn them that their covert operation had been exposed and reduce the risk that they may attempt any action that could damage our pipelines or our cables.”
The Russian operation, Healey explained, demonstrated why the government saw Moscow “as the primary threat to the UK and to Nato”, adding: “We will not take our eyes off Putin, whilst at the same time we act to protect our British interests and our British allies in the Middle East.”
The Ministry of Defence said Gugi had specialist surface ships and submarines that were used to survey underwater infrastructure during peacetime, but had the capability to damage or destroy vital links during a conflict.
The UK and its Nato allies have become increasingly concerned about the risk Moscow poses to underwater cables and pipelines, amid heightened tensions after the invasion of Ukraine.
While saying there was a need for increased defence spending, Healey said the operation showed that the UK was capable of deterring Russia.
“I think the nature of the operation that I’ve set out today demonstrates that we have UK armed forces capable of detecting, capable of deterring, capable of responding if required in order to protect Britain, protect our vital undersea infrastructure,” he added.
Asked about Donald Trump’s disparaging remarks about European countries’ contribution to Nato, Healey said: “I’m not going to comment on social media posts. What I can reflect on is the conversations that I’ve had with his secretary of war, Pete Hegseth, both one to one, and when I sit next to him at Nato defence minister meetings.
“He is clear about the US, that they remain totally, totally committed to Nato and to article 5, but equally strong in requiring European Nato nations like the UK to step up.”
Asked if the US president’s decision to attack Iran had made Putin’s job easier by sowing confusion, Healey avoided answering the question.
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Russian submarine operation over Britain's undersea cables revealed as UK warns Putin 'we see you'
Russia ran a secret operation targeting crucial energy and data cables in British waters for over a month, the Defence Secretary revealed today.
John Healey said a nuclear-powered attack submarine and two spy submarines had been spotted in the North Atlantic, with a warship and aircraft deployed in response.
Sonar buoys - which track underwater movements using acoustic signals - were dropped into the water to deter the Russians from targeting the cables, which carry vast amounts of valuable data. Addressing Russian President Vladimir Putin, Mr Healey said: 'We see your activity over our cables and our pipelines, and you should know that any attempt to damage them will not be tolerated and will have serious consequences.'
The Defence Secretary said the operation involved an Akula-class nuclear-powered attack submarine and two specialist submarines from a Russian ministry of defence research programme known as GUGI (Main Directorate of Deep-Sea Research).
Aided by allies including Norway, Britain deployed 500 personnel onboard a warship and Royal Air Force P8 aircraft, which flew for more than 450 hours before the Russian subs retreated.
Mr Healey said Putin had sought to capitalise on the world being 'distracted' by the Iran war and said his actions showed by it was 'not in Britain's national interest' to deploy large parts of the Royal Navy to the Middle East.
He told a press conference that he wanted to expose Russia's targeting of Britain's underwater infrastructure and vowed to 'step up' efforts to protect it.
It comes as Putin made a mockery of Sir Keir Starmer's vow to stop illegal oil tankers using the Channel by sending a warship to escort them, unmolested by the Royal Navy.
John Healey revealed the 'covert' Russian operation in a media briefing at 9 Downing Street
A satellite image released by the MoD of a spy sub operated by a Russian ministry of defence research programme known as GUGI (Main Directorate of Deep-Sea Research)
GUGI's spy ship Yantar pictured in another satellite image released by the MoD
Mr Healey said: 'In response to the Russian submarines, I can confirm that I deployed our armed forces to track and to deter any malign activity by these vessels.
'A Royal Navy warship and Royal Air Force P8 aircraft alongside allies ensured that the Russian submarines were monitored 24/7.
'The Akula submarine subsequently retreated home, having been closely tracked throughout and we continued to monitor the two GUGI submarines in and around wider UK waters.
'Our armed forces left them in no doubt that they were being monitored, that their movements were not covert, as President Putin planned, and that their attempted secret operation had been exposed.
'Those GUGI submarines have now left UK waters and headed back north.'
He said the month-long operation had now concluded.
The senior minister said the attack submarine acted as 'a likely decoy to distract us from the Gugi submarines' as they 'spent time over critical infrastructure relevant to us and our allies in the North Atlantic'.
He continued: 'Because we were watching them, we wanted to ensure that we could warn them that their covert operation had been exposed and reduce the risk that they may attempt any action that could damage our pipelines or our cables.
'And I'm confident, we have no evidence that there has been any damage, but with allies,
The submarines had been within the UK's exclusive economic zone, which extends up to 200 nautical miles – about 230 miles – offshore, but not within Britain's territorial waters, within 12 nautical miles (13.8 miles) from the coast, the Defence Secretary said.
It was not the first time vessels from the Gugi fleet were 'directed by President to conduct hybrid warfare activities' against the UK's vital subsea infrastructure, Mr Healey said.
Last November, the Yantar spy ship was caught lurking over cables in waters north of Scotland and was warned off by a Royal Navy nuclear-powered attack submarine.
The Ministry of Defence says Gugi has both specialist surface ships and submarines that are used to survey underwater infrastructure during peacetime, but also has the capability to damage or destroy those vital links during a conflict.
The UK and its Nato allies have become increasingly concerned about the risk Moscow poses to underwater cables and pipelines, amid heightened tensions following the invasion of Ukraine.
Attacks on undersea infrastructure could cause major disruption to the financial and communications systems Britons rely on.
It comes at a sensitive time for the MoD after the Russian frigate Admiral Grigorovich was seen accompanying two 'shadow fleet' vessels past Britain's south coast yesterday, with the Navy only able to rustle up one support ship to watch it.
The vessels are moored at Russian naval base Olenya in the High North
Last month, Sir Keir gave approval for Britain's commandos to board and halt shadow fleet vessels as they pass through UK waters in an attempt to 'go after' the sanction-breaking ships 'even harder'.
But RFA Tideforce, an auxiliary tanker armed with only light defensive weapons, simply followed the three-ship flotilla past Dover without intervening.
It followed claims by Tory leader Kemi Badenoch that Sir Keir was 'all mouth and no trousers' when it came to defence.
Asked about yesterday's incident in the Channel, Mr Healey said Moscow 'still poses a threat'.
He added that Britain 'will continue to do what we've done as a matter of course, which is ensure that we can escort any Russian warships through our waters and, in the case of this operation, to ensure that we can track any potentially malign activity, and that we can monitor and make clear that we have exposed any covert operations that Putin wants to mount that may threaten our vital interests'.
Mr Healey claimed the operation to shadow Russian subs showed why Britain had been right not to send more ships to the Middle East.
He said: 'When a crisis erupts noisily and dangerously, as it has done in the Middle East, I understand people questioning why all UK military assets and personnel have not been deployed to deal with it, but that is not in Britain's national interest.
'The greatest threats are often unseen and silent, and as demands on defence rise, we must deploy our resources to best effect.'
He added that Putin 'would have wanted us, I expect, to be distracted and my purpose today is to demonstrate to him publicly that we have not been – that we have our eye on him, that we recognise he and Russia pose the primary threat to UK security and Nato security.'
HMS Somerset (front) and HMS St Albans tracking Russian vessel RFN Severomorsk. The undated photo was released today by the Navy after what it described as 'ten days of focused operations closely monitoring Russian warships'
Russia was likely sharing intelligence and training Iranian forces in drone tactics, with Moscow's attacks on Ukraine 'reflected' in many of the ways that Iran is attacking Middle East countries, he added.
Sir Keir, who arrived in the UAE this morning as part of a visit to the Gulf, insisted he would 'not shy away' from taking action against Russia.
He said: 'I am determined to protect the British people from paying the price for Putin's aggression in their household bills.
'That is why we will not shy away from taking action and exposing Russia's destabilising activity that seeks to test our resolve.
'Our Armed Forces are among the best in the world, and the British public should be in no doubt that this government will do whatever it takes to defend our national and economic security, wherever in the world that is needed.'
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UK issues stark warning to Putin over Russian spy submarines detected in North Atlantic.
Defence secretary John Healey warned any attempt to damage UK cables and pipelines ‘will have serious consequences’
The defence secretary has issued a stark warning to Vladimir Putin after Russian attack and spy submarines were found operating in the North Atlantic.
John Healey told a press conference in Downing Street on Thursday that in the past few weeks, while many eyes were trained on the Middle East crisis, the UK responded to “increased Russian activity” near crucial UK cables and pipelines in the Atlantic north of Britain.
He revealed that the UK and allies monitored the vessels, which included a Russian Akula-class nuclear-powered attack submarine and two specialist submarines from Russia’s ministry of defence deep sea research programme, known as GUGI, for a month before they retreated.
Addressing Putin directly, Mr Healey said: “We see your activity over our cables and our pipelines, and you should know that any attempt to damage them will not be tolerated and will have serious consequences.”
Defence secretary John Healey says the Russian submarines were tracked for a month (Toby Shepheard/PA)
Mr Healey’s warning came after The Telegraph reported that Russia sent a warship to escort sanctioned oil tankers through the English Channel, following Sir Keir Starmer’s declaration that sanctioned vessels sailing in British waters would be seized.
The Black Sea Fleet frigate Admiral Grigorovich is said to have accompanied a pair of shadow fleet ships on Wednesday, which were followed by a British naval vessel. According to the newspaper, the vessel observed the flotilla off England’s south coast while RFA Tideforce, a Royal Fleet Auxiliary tanker, was in their wake.
Satellite imagery of the Russian GUGI vessels at dock (Ministry of Defence)
Mr Healey said: “In response to the Russian submarines, I can confirm that I deployed our armed forces to track and to deter any malign activity by these vessels. A Royal Navy warship and Royal Air Force P8 aircraft alongside allies ensured that the Russian submarines were monitored 24/7. The Akula submarine subsequently retreated home, having been closely tracked throughout, and we continued to monitor the two GUGI submarines in and around wider UK waters.
“Our armed forces left them in no doubt that they were being monitored, that their movements were not covert, as President Putin planned, and that their attempted secret operation had been exposed. Those GUGI submarines have now left UK waters and headed back north.”
Mr Healey said the attack submarine acted as “a likely decoy” to distract from the GUGI submarines as they “spent time over critical infrastructure relevant to us and our allies in the North Atlantic. Because we were watching them, we wanted to ensure that we could warn them that their covert operation had been exposed and reduce the risk that they may attempt any action that could damage our pipelines or our cables.
“And I’m confident we have no evidence that there has been any damage, but with allies we’re sure that this is now verifiable.”
Undersea fibre-optic cables, which are responsible for 99 per cent of the world’s digital communications, are essential for commerce, government and military functions by securely transmitting information. Any damage to Britain’s undersea cables could cause serious political and economic disruption.
Sir Kier Starmer said last month that the navy would intercept Russia’s shadow fleet. The armed forces and law enforcement are now empowered to halt and board sanctioned vessels that pass through UK waters. The prime minister’s announcement was made in conjunction with European allies in an attempt to cut off funding for Moscow’s war with Ukraine.
It is understood that the shadow fleet consists of approximately 700 vessels, carrying around 40 per cent of all Russian oil exports. The UK has to date sanctioned 544 Russian shadow fleet vessels that ship oil and other goods out of Russia illegally by flying the flags of other countries, with the aim of evading sanctions imposed by the West since the invasion of Ukraine.
Prime minister Keir Starmer warned last month that sanctioned vessels sailing in British waters would be seized (PA)
Closing off British waters is aimed at forcing the Russian vessels into taking longer, more costly sea routes, or risk being intercepted by the UK.
Sir Keir said: “We are living in an increasingly volatile and dangerous world, facing threats from different fronts across the world every day. As prime minister, my first duty is to keep this country safe and protect British interests here and abroad. Putin is rubbing his hands at the war in the Middle East because he thinks higher oil prices will let him line his pockets. That’s why we’re going after his shadow fleet even harder, not just keeping Britain safe but starving Putin’s war machine of the dirty profits that fund his barbaric campaign in Ukraine. He and his cronies should be in no doubt, we will always defend our sovereignty and stand with Ukraine for as long as it takes.”
British forces have already been involved in tracking shadow fleet vessels for several years, and have supported operations by other countries to seize the ships.
В Минобороны назвали количество нарушений ВСУ пасхального перемирия.
Минобороны: зафиксировано 6558 нарушений пасхального перемирия со стороны ВСУ.
МОСКВА, 13 апр - РИА Новости. Зафиксировано 6558 нарушений режима пасхального перемирия со стороны ВСУ, сообщило в понедельник министерство обороны РФ.
"Несмотря на объявление режима пасхального перемирия, украинские вооруженные формирования продолжали наносить удары с использованием беспилотных летательных аппаратов и артиллерии по позициям наших войск, а также по гражданским объектам в приграничных районах Белгородской и Курской областей Российской Федерации. Всего зафиксировано 6558 нарушений режима перемирия",
- говорится в сводке военного ведомства.
Как информировал ранее Кремль, перемирие действовало с 16.00 11 апреля до исхода дня 12 апреля.
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Нарушения «пасхального перемирия»: украинские военные обвинили Россию в расстреле военнопленных, Минобороны РФ заявило об атаке по автозаправке.
Минобороны РФ заявило, что российские войска «в зоне военной операции строго соблюдали режим прекращения огня» (цитата по РБК), а с украинской стороны ведомство зафиксировало 6558 случаев нарушения перемирия.
В частности, заявили в ведомстве, украинский беспилотник во время перемирия повредил автозаправочную станцию «Роснефти» во Льгове Курской области.
Генштаб ВСУ, в свою очередь, насчитал 10721 нарушение режима прекращения огня со стороны России.
Кроме того, Генпрокуратура Украины заявила, что 11 апреля (в субботу) в Харьковской области российские военные расстреляли четырех украинских военнопленных. Как заявили «Суспільне» в 14-м армейском корпусе ВСУ, это произошло уже после начала перемирия.
«Пасхальное перемирие» длилось с 16:00 по Москве субботы до полуночи с воскресенья на понедельник.
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Moment Putin strolls into Easter Sunday service in Moscow - as Elon Musk's father watches on - after 'breaking Kremlin-declared ceasefire'
Vladimir Putin strolled into an Easter Sunday service attended by Elon Musk's father in Moscow last night, after violating a Kremlin-declared ceasefire.
The Russian president casually walked into the midnight cathedral service, apparently wearing heavy makeup, and looking weary and tired.
Putin's annual appearance at the Christ the Saviour Cathedral near the Kremlin, to mark Orthodox Easter, came soon after he called a 32-hour ceasefire in the war - which his own troops violated.
The Easter ceasefire was broken by Russia after it attacked Ukrainian positions with drones on Saturday.
Ukraine's military command reported nearly 470 Russian violations of the truce.
In a festive message at the Sunday service, Putin said: 'The great holiday of Easter fills the hearts of millions of people with sincere joy, faith in the all-conquering power of life, in the triumph of love, goodness, and justice, and unites us around centuries-old paternal traditions, undeniable spiritual, moral values, and ideals.'
As his troops broke his declared ceasefire, he praised 'our heroes - the participants and veterans of the special military operation'.
The service was also attended by Elon Musk's father Errol, 79, who is a regular visitor to Russia.
President Putin attended the Easter Sunday midnight service at the Christ the Saviour Cathedral near the Kremlin last night, hours after breaking the Russia-declared ceasefire with Ukraine
Elon Musk's father, Errol, 79, watched on. The South African businessman is a regular visitor to Russia
Putin appeared tired and weary and wore heavy makeup in the annual outing. Pictured: Putin (left) next to Moscow's mayor Sergey Sobyanin
Errol Musk has previously praised Putin and even blamed his son for falling out with President Donald Trump.
…
President Putin on Thursday declared a 32-hour ceasefire over the Orthodox Easter weekend, ordering Russian forces to halt hostilities from 4pm on Saturday until the end of Sunday.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky promised to abide by the ceasefire, describing it as an opportunity to build on peace initiatives. But he warned there would be a swift military response to any violations.
Russia quickly violated their own ceasefire after attacking Ukrainian positions with drones on Saturday evening, as Serhii Kolesnychenko, a communications officer for Ukraine's 148th Separate Artillery Brigade, said: 'The ceasefire is not being observed by the Russian side.'
Mr Kolesnychenko said that while artillery fire had paused in the sector where his brigade was working, at the junction of the Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia regions, Russian forces continued to use drones to strike Ukrainian positions.
Ukrainian forces were responding with 'silence to silence and fire to fire', Mr Kolesnychenko said.
Hours before the ceasefire was due to begin, Russia launched drone strikes across Ukraine. Pictured: A view of the aftermath following a Russian airstrike using KAB-250 guided bombs in the city centre of Kramatorsk, Ukraine, on April 11, 2026
According to the Ukrainian Air Force, Russia targeted Ukraine with 160 drones overnight, of which 133 were shot down or intercepted, hours before a proposed Easter ceasefire was due to come into force
Ukraine's military command said on Facebook: 'After 4:00 pm, 469 ceasefire violations were recorded, namely: 22 enemy assault actions, 153 shelling attacks, 19 strikes by attack drones... and 275 strikes by FPV drones.
'Today in total, the enemy carried out 57 air strikes and dropped 182 guided aerial bombs. In addition, it deployed 3,928 kamikaze drones and conducted 2,454 shelling attacks on populated areas and positions of our troops'.
The latest flare-up comes despite Moscow and Kyiv both signalling that the end of the war in Ukraine may be in sight.
Russia's hardline foreign minister issued a surprise statement that 'the prospect of a political and diplomatic settlement is on the horizon.'
At the same time, Ukraine's top negotiator Lt-Gen Kyrylo Budanov, 40, made clear Russia is shifting its stance. 'They all understand the war needs to end. That's why they are negotiating,' he told Bloomberg. 'I don't think it will be long.'
Что значат итоги выборов в Венгрии для Украины и Европы?
Итак, выборы в Венгрии завершились разгромной победой оппозиции. Орбан уже признал свое поражение. И это, конечно, будет иметь последствия.
В первую очередь, поражение Орбана - это поражение Трампа в битве с европейскими леволиберальными элитами и, в целом, с Европейским союзом. Трамп открыто поддержал Орбана, который был для него важнейшим союзником с точки зрения влияния на внутренние дела Евросоюза в рамках концепции полного подчинения Европы Вашингтону. Теперь этот союзник потерян и элиты ЕС свое положение в противостоянии с Трампом упрочили. Что не отменяет новых проблем, к которым может привести рост популярности правых и прочих антисистемных сил в разных странах Европы. Но, по крайней мере на данный момент, одной проблемой для евроэлит стало меньше. И это главный итог выборов в Венгрии.
Причем, очевидно, что в немалой степени такой итог обусловлен начатой Трампом войной с Ираном, которая явно пошла не по первоначальному плану и вызвала резкий рост антитрампистских настроений в Европе, превратив поддержку с его стороны для европейских политиков в четкий минус. И это предвестник более широких и серьёзных проблем президента США, которые могут ждать его на довыборах в Конгресс в конце этого года.
В Киеве же, конечно, больше внимание обращают на другой аспект - Орбан блокировал в ЕС многие процессы, начиная от санкций против РФ и заканчивая евроинтеграцией Украины и кредитом в 90 млрд евро. Теперь же, как надеются украинские власти, эти процессы будут разблокированы. Особенно кредит, острая потребность в котором возникнет уже в мае.
Однако как раз на эти моменты исход выборов в Венгрии может не оказать решающего воздействия, так как основное влияние на принятие решений по данным пунктам окажут совсем другие факторы. Если продлится блокада Ормузского пролива и связанный с этим ценовой шок на топливном рынке, то под большим вопросом окажется как выдача кредита в 90 млрд, так и новые санкции против РФ. Наоборот - в Европе будут все чаще поднимать вопрос о том, чтоб возобновить закупку российских энергоносителей. И по тем же причинам может увеличиться число тех, кто выступает против предоставления Украине крупной финансовой помощи с учетом резкого ухудшения экономической ситуации в самой Европе. Тем более, что помимо Орбана у этой точки зрения есть и другие сторонники (премьер Словакии Фицо, например). Кроме того, поражение союзника на выборах в Венгрии может ещё более усилить раздражение Трампа в отношении Европы и вызвать новый поток угроз относительно выхода из НАТО и сворачивания американского военного присутствия на континенте. И чем больше будет обостряться конфорки США и Европы, тем выше вероятность, что это напрямую коснется и поддержки Украины - в плане сворачивания поставок американского оружия и разведданных.
Хотя, безусловно, смена власти в Венгрии увеличит вероятность разблокировки кредита Украине. Или, как минимум, создаст впечатление у украинских властей, что с кредитом уже почти все решено.
И это уменьшит и без того небольшие шансы на то, что Киев согласится с требованиями РФ и США по выводу войск из Донецкой области. А значит война будет затягиваться и далее, создавая риски перерастания в войну РФ с Европой. Если только и Москва, и ЕС не смогут в ближайшее время изменить свой стратегический курс по отношению друг к другу.
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Украина отменяет рекомендации своим гражданам воздержаться от поездок в Венгрию «в связи с завершением вчера избирательной кампании», сообщил глава МИД Сибига.
«Эта избирательная кампания, которая, к сожалению, была переполнена манипуляциями в отношении Украины, уже позади. А значит, утратили свою остроту и повышенные риски провокаций, из-за которых вводились эти ограничения», - пишет Сибига.
Он говорит, что Киев рассчитывает на «нормализацию отношений». А результаты выборов «ознаменовали поражение политики шантажа и антиукраинской пропаганды».
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The biggest winner from Viktor Orban’s ousting is Ukraine.
As Trump and Putin’s man in Europe is swept away by an election landslide, Hungary is back being a firm and reliable ally – meaning the EU can now get on with offering meaningful support to Kyiv…
As the long, dark night of Viktor Orban’s 16-year rule in Hungary came to an end this weekend, it wasn’t just the jubilant crowds crammed onto the bridges across the Danube that had a song in their heart. There are few political events about which you can reach for a quote from 1970s soul band Hot Chocolate – but today, “Everyone’s a winner, baby, that’s no lie”.
For “the dictator”, as he was known in Brussels, has gone. Hungary has certainly won, Europe has won, Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin have lost their fifth-columnist ally on this continent, and Nigel Farage has lost a source of ideological inspiration.
But the biggest sigh of relief – at the sheer size of Peter Magyar’s election landslide – must have been in Kyiv. Cliche or not, we shouldn’t hesitate to call the end of Orban as a game-changer for Ukraine.
In recent years, Volodymyr Zelensky and his people have conducted their astonishingly successful resistance to the Russian invasion with bravery, solidarity and ingenuity – and in spite of a shortage of funds. The European Union has long had a massive 90bn euros ready to lend to them – to pay for armaments, soldiers’ wages, and just to keep going – but the arrangement has been vetoed by the most stubborn and intractable of EU member states.
The end of Orban’s government means the EU is back to being a firm and reliable ally. Its financial assistance could hardly have come at a more critical juncture. Trump’s calamitous war-by-instinct in Iran has pushed the world price of oil and natural gas so high that it has given the Russian economy, and thus Putin’s war machine, an unexpected boost.
Without Europe – both in terms of fighting the war, and its long-term aim of cementing its future as a civilised, modern, outward-looking nation – Ukraine was doomed. But as the Hungarian people collectively roared "Ruszkik haza!" (“Russians, go home!”), they echoed their own uprising against Soviet oppression in 1956, but also solidarity with the Ukrainian people.
No longer will Orbán and his ministers gleefully leak classified information about discussions within the EU and Nato to the Kremlin. Magyar, contrary to some assumptions, is no central European version of Zack Polanski. He is socially conservative, resistant to accepting refugees, for example. But he also understands that there is no future for his proud historic nation or the continent it shares by being a Russian vassal state, and is this more of a Hungarian patriot than Orban could ever be.
Hungary’s identity crisis – triggered by trying to be simultaneously an ally of Putin and of Trump, while retaining full Nato and EU membership – should now be over. Budapest knows whose side it is on.
There’s a key lesson here for other Europeans, too. Orbán’s failure in his quest to be an ideological ally of Trump and Putin, dependent both on the EU and China for trade, investment and prosperity, points to future failure for the likes of AfD, Le Pen, Farage and all the other so-called Christian nationalist populists across Europe.
Orbanism, if there ever could be such a thing, is a contradiction in terms. In Europe, shifting alliances based on dodgy ideologies are less durable than those rooted in the clear national interest of democratically pooling sovereignty on a permanent basis of trust. That’s what the EU is all about, it’s what the Hungarians have at last embraced – and that way, every European can be a winner.
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How Trump’s support delivered the kiss of death to Orban’s election chances after landslide defeat
The Hungarian PM had sought the backing of the Trump administration to see his struggling party over the line in elections to shape the future of Europe. Instead, it appears that the President’s backing may have harmed his chance…
Vice President J.D. Vance and the now-outgoing Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban at an election rally in Budapest last Tuesday (Getty)
Lt took Viktor Orbán sixteen years to reshape Hungary in his image. It took one evening to undo it.
Peter Magyar’s landslide victory followed months of campaigning, positioning himself as the antidote to years of autocratic drift, while Hungary’s veteran nationalist leader doubled down on his ties to Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump.
In the days leading up to the election, Trump had offered the prime minister his “Complete and Total Endorsement”, telling Hungarians to “GET OUT AND VOTE FOR VIKTOR ORBÁN”. He went so far as to send his vice president, JD Vance, to campaign for Orbán in Budapest - as the polls showed Magyar pressing ahead.
Trump was silent on Monday after the election defeat, still dealing with the fallout of failed negotiations to end the war in Iran. As the conflict continues to harm his domestic and global popularity, experts have questioned whether his endorsement is a blessing or a curse.
Trump’s glowing endorsement of Orban
As Magyar was outlining his vision for reintegration with Europe on the campaign trail late last year, Orbán met with Trump at the White House to shore up ties. The president gave the prime minister a glowing endorsement for his hardline stance on immigration, and Trump showed sympathy for Hungary’s reliance on Russian energy.
Orbán left with an exemption from US sanctions on Russia - and no protests against his cosying up to Moscow.
Trump ramped up support as the election closed in and Orbán signalled his alignment with the slogan ‘Make Europe Great Again’.
JD Vance stood before Orbán’s supporters in Budapest last week and praised him as a defender of “Western civilisation”, vowing to “help him in this campaign cycle”. But this was not enough to convince the 20 per cent of undecided voters he was worth re-electing.
Peter Magyar addresses supporters after claiming victory, in Budapest on Sunday (AP)
In fact, betting markets showed that support for Orbán’s dipped slightly after Vance’s address to fans in the Hungarian capital, according to analysis by Newsweek. But experts cautioned that this does not necessarily mean that Vance’s speech caused the change.
Diana Sosoaca, a far-right member of the European Parliament from Romania, on Sunday called Vance's Hungarian visit "a big mistake" given widespread revulsion at the Iran war on the continent.
In a similar vein, Germany’s far-right AfD party is said to be pulling itself away from public appearances with the Trump administration with the unpopular conflict in the Middle East dragging on, according to a report.
The party’s co-leader Alice Weidel told lawmakers last month to reduce high profile trips to the US to cosy up to Maga Republicans, according to people present at the meeting.
Hungary rejected Orbán’s ‘Trumpian’ policies
Orbán had led Hungary through four years of recession and recovery when he chose to unveil his grand plan for an “illiberal democracy” at a cultural event in Romania in 2014. In his most consequential speech as leader, he argued that the financial crisis of 2008 had exposed holes in the liberal project and that a strong state, no longer bound to obsess over personal freedoms, was Hungary’s future.
“Just because something is not liberal, it still can be a democracy,” he said, prophetically. The EU called it “electoral autocracy”.
Donald Trump met Orbán at the White House in November, before granting an exemption from Russian energy sanctions (Getty)
In the 12 years that followed, he consolidated power around himself, justifying his alternative system as a necessity to preserve the country’s Christian heritage and ward off dangerous outsiders. His Fidesz party would crack down on migration, stifle LGBT rights and attack the freedom of the press. It also restructured the judiciary to funnel appointments to the bench through party loyalists, redrew legislative districts to make it much harder for Fidesz members to lose elections and helped push Hungary's media companies to be sold to tycoons allied with Orbán.
Senator Chris Van Hollen, a Maryland Democrat, told AP: "He was essentially doing what Donald Trump is trying to do here in the United States. My read of the election is that the people of Hungary rejected that, just like people in the United States are rejecting that here at home."
Éva Fodor, a professor at the Central European University, told The Independent ahead of the election: ““Before every election, they had a different kind of enemy: immigrants, George Soros, Brussels, and the gender lobby. But now they don’t seem to have a new enemy that they can construct. So they’re just trying to sort of double down on some of these topics.”
What happens next?
Orbán’s landslide defeat handed Magyar a comfortable majority in Hungary's 199-seat legislature, opening the door for meaningful reforms.
Dr Jonathan Eyal, associate director at the Royal United Services Institute, told the Independent ahead of the election that the two-thirds majority was needed to overcome “landmines” placed by Fidesz to trip him up after assuming power.
Warning against expecting too much from Magyar at first, he said the main task now will be to topple the existing structure in the face of fierce resistance. The government has spent years developing quasi-government bodies “deliberately created to interfere with the functioning of a new government”, he explained.
Tisza will likely face “guerilla warfare” in the form of disobedience campaigns in the countryside and blockages in parliament. Orbán will have already committed spending to communities, constraining the next leader or forcing him to abandon Fidesz’s promises.
“Orban has waged two campaigns,” he explained. “One was a very direct frontal assault to stop him getting elected. The second one was to plant landmines everywhere to ensure that if he does get elected, he cannot succeed.”
To ensure he succeeds, Europe will have to release some money before Magyar can start enacting policies to show quick achievements before Orbán can unsettle him, Dr Eyal said.
Orban maintained a good relationship with Vladimir Putin, at odds with most of Europe (AP)
Change of leader is bad news for Russia
Landlocked Hungary is largely dependent on Russian oil and gas, making it a valuable access point for the Kremlin to try to influence support for Ukraine in Europe.
Frustrations with Hungary blocking aid have ballooned into accusations of outright collaboration with Russia, after leaked conversations appeared to show Orbán and his foreign minister Peter Szijjarto pandering to Moscow and undermining efforts to help Ukraine.
One conversation apparently heard Orbán laying on his “friendship” to Putin. He reportedly said: “In any matter where I can be of assistance, I am at your service.”
Dr Eyal said Magyar is likely to remain “suspicious” of Ukraine, citing pre-war disagreements. But he will aim to be “unobstructive” in Europe, crucially allowing a €90bn loan for Ukraine to pass.
Ahead of the election, Magyar advocated for “pragmatism” in the conflict, which he says “means that we have no say in Russia’s internal affairs, and they don’t have any say in our affairs. We are both sovereign countries, and we respect each other, but we don’t have to like each other”.
He will now have to be careful to balance the EU’s demands with the public’s views on Ukraine. Nationwide, just 34 per cent of voters want a new approach to Ukraine, while 32 per cent want a continuation of Fidesz’s reluctance to get involved. Tisza overwhelmingly supports change while Fidesz’s base supports the status quo.
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Did JD Vance's Hungary visit backfire on Viktor Orban? How US Vice President's show of support failed to reverse slide in PM's polling - before he suffered crushing election defeat.
JD Vance urged Hungarians to vote for Viktor Orban as he arrived in Budapest in a last-gasp attempt to bolster his campaign.
The US Vice President lavished praise on Orban, branding him a defender of national sovereignty and western civilization, days before Europe's longest serving leader succumbed to a crushing defeat to Peter Magyar.
Orban, a close ally of Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, held an iron grip over the nation after 16 years in charge but was trailing in the polls ahead of Sunday's election, with Hungarians seeking closer ties with the EU and distance from Russia.
The hard-right leader was polling an average of ten points behind Magyar, according to Politico Europe's aggregated Poll of Polls, when Vance jetted into Budapest in support of the under pressure premier.
But Orban's Fidesz party lost the election by a greater margin of 15 points,
claiming a mere 55 seats compared to Magyar's 138, in a result which will allow the new prime minister to remove many of his predecessor's constitutional reforms.
'I won't tell the people of Hungary how to vote,' Vance said on Tuesday before immediately urging people to vote for Orban at his campaign rally.
'We've got to get Viktor Orban re-elected as prime minister of Hungary, don't we?' he added.
The vice president claimed Orban was 'a man who has done more than any leader in Europe to bring about a successful resolution to the war between Russia and Ukraine'.
JD Vance urged Hungarians to vote for Viktor Orban as he arrived in Budapest to make a last-gasp attempt to bolster his campaign
He took a phone call from Trump, who voiced support for Orban, during the rally before begging Hungarians to 'go to the polls this weekend and stand with Viktor Orban'.
'I love Hungary and I love that Viktor,' Trump said 'I'm with him all the way, the United States is with him all the way.'
Orban, a hard-right anti-EU leader, was seen as Trump's closest ally in Europe and their relationship was viewed as increasingly important as trans-Atlantic relations thaw over the Iran war.
But Vance's intervention was ultimately unsuccesful with Magyar's landslide victory giving him significant authority to reset ties with Brussels and Moscow.
András Bíró-Nagy, of Budapest think-tank Policy Solutions, said Orban 'expected too much from its friendship with the Trump administration' and 'overestimated the likely impact of this visit'.
He said the probable electoral effect was 'close to zero'.
The vice president did not mention the Iran war during his visit. Orban has developed closer ties with Iran during his premiership.
Speaking at an Orban campaign rally, Vance launched a scathing attack on the EU and Ukraine, accusing the EU of attemping to rig the election.
He said the EU had presided over 'one of the worst examples of foreign election interference that I have ever seen or ever even read about... because they hate this guy'.
Orban, a hard-right anti-EU leader, was seen as Trump's closest ally in Europe and their relationship was viewed as increasingly important as trans-Atlantic relations thaw over the Iran war
He also said 'part of the reason' for his visit was because 'interference that's come from the bureaucracy in Brussels has been truly disgraceful.
'We want you to make a decision about your future with no outside forces pressuring you or telling you what to do. I'm not telling you exactly who to vote for but what I am telling you is that the bureaucrats in Brussels, those people should not be listened to.'
Orban conceded defeat on Sunday as his Fidesz party were humbled by Magyar's Tisza.
Jubilant Hungarians partied through the night after it became clear that Orban would lose his grip on power.
Crowds gathered across the country chanting 'Russians go home' as they took to the streets to celebrate a new era for the country.
'We did it,' the new prime minister told a cheering crowd beside the River Danube in Budapest. 'Together we overthrew the Hungarian regime.'
Magyar, a 45-year-old former member of Orban's Fidesz party, stood on a platform of opposing Russia and strengthening ties with European allies.
Orban campaigned against Ukraine and Zelensky and came under fire after a leaked phone call emerged where he told Putin 'I am at your service'.
He consistently blocked EU funding for Kyiv and his defeat is seen as a major victory for Brussels.
During his victory speech Magyar said the 'healing' of the nation will begin today and that Orbán's 'puppets' need to go.
He added that Hungary 'will no longer be a country without consequences' and that those who 'stole from the country have to face consequences'.
Conceding the election, Orbán told his supporters: 'The result of the election is clear and painful.'
The 62-year-old, who was Europe's longest serving leader, added: 'We don't have the weight of governing the country so we have to rebuild our communities.
'We never give up, this is one thing people know about us, we never give up. The days ahead of us are for us to heal our wounds.'
Hungarians came out in force for the election, the first since 2022. After just five hours of voting the turnout was at a record 66 per cent, according to the National Election Office.
This is far higher than in 2022, an election that saw 900,000 fewer voters casting their ballots by 3pm.
While supporters of Magyar's Tisza party were seen celebrating over the defeat of one of Europe's fiercest critics, many of Orbán's supporters were seen weeping upon hearing that he had conceded.
Top European figures posted in celebration of the major political upset.
Sir Keir Starmer celebrated Magyar's victory, writing on X: 'Congratulations [Peter Magyar] on your election victory.
'This is an historic moment, not only for Hungary, but for European democracy. I look forward to working with you for the security and prosperity of both our countries.'
Peter Magyar ran on a mandate of building closer ties with the EU and the rest of Europe while Orban wanted closer ties with Russia
Conceding the election, Orbán told his supporters: 'The result of the election is clear and painful'
Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission said almost immediately after Orbán conceded defeat: 'Hungary has chosen Europe. Europe has always chosen Hungary. A country reclaims its European path. The Union grows stronger.'
French president Emmanuel Macron also congratulated Magyar on his victory, writing on X: 'I just held a meeting with Peter Magyar to congratulate him on his victory in Hungary! France salutes a victory of democratic participation, of the Hungarian people's attachment to the values of the European Union, and for Hungary in Europe.
'Together, let us advance a more sovereign Europe, for the security of our continent, our competitiveness, and our democracy.'
And German chancellor Friedrich Merz said in post to X: 'The Hungarian people have decided. My heartfelt congratulations on your electoral success, dear [Peter Magyar].
'I am looking forward to working with you. Let's join forces for a strong, secure and, above all, united Europe.'
As Hungarians went to polling stations across the nation from 6am local time, Magyar said the election was a 'referendum' on whether the country continues to drift towards Russia's sphere of influence.
He bluntly said shortly after casting his own vote that the election was 'a choice between East or West, propaganda or honest public discourse, corruption or clean public life'.
He added: 'I urge all Hungarian citizens to exercise their right to vote.'
The nation was also voting on Orbán's track record and his political ideology, which have undergone a massive transformation through his years in politics.
Once a liberal, anti-Soviet firebrand, he slowly but surely became a Russia-friendly nationalist admired today by the global hard-right.
Supporters of Magyar filled the streets and partied through the night as he took home a landslide victory
'We did it,' the new prime minister told a cheering crowd beside the River Danube in Budapest. 'Together we overthrew the Hungarian regime'
Supporters of the new prime minister flooded the streets as it became clear he had won a stunning victory
His move towards authoritarianism saw him launch harsh crackdowns on minority rights and media freedoms, and subvert many of Hungary's institutions.
Orbán has had tight control of Hungary's public media, which he has transformed into a mouthpiece for his party, and vast swaths of the private media market.
He has also long been accused of siphoning large sums of money into the coffers of his allied business elite – an allegation he denies.
The populist figure put significant strain on his nation's relationship with the EU, seeming to revel in using his veto power to stymie the 27-member bloc's important decisions.
Most recently he blocked a €90billion (£78.5billion) EU loan to Ukraine, prompting his partners to accuse him of hijacking the critical aid.
He has also been accused of cozying up to Russia. In the run-up to this year's pivotal elections, media outlets alleged Russian secret services plotted to interfere and tip it in Orbán's favour.
The Hungarian election was being closely watched across the world, particularly in Europe. In the US, Orbán has long been supported by Trump and his MAGA movement.
Цитата:
Why Putin and Trump bet the house on Hungary’s Viktor Orban – and lost
Viktor Orbán’s semi-authoritarian rule was backed by the US and Russian administrations because they see it as a justification of their own modus operandi, …
People stand next to an election campaign poster showing Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orbán, ahead of the parliamentary election (Reuters)
Seldom has Europe seen an election quite like this. As Hungary went to the polls on Sunday, not only were Moscow and Washington on the same side but they threw the kitchen sink at securing their man Viktor Orbán’s 16-year rule an extension. Never before has a US vice-president campaigned for one side like JD Vance has just done in Budapest. Nor for a while have we seen Vladimir Putin issue such a flurry of promises and concessions amid an intense disinformation campaign and reports of Russian agents operating on Hungarian soil. They did this because Orbán matters to the cause they both share: keeping the European Union divided and proving that right-wing semi-authoritarianism can thrive. And still: they lost.
Viktor Orbán's importance to the White House underlines an old truth. Nations don’t simply exert influence through their armies or their economies. Nations with a strong ideology can exert their own particular appeal and importance to superpowers and intellectuals alike. From Castro’s Cuba to Lee Kuan Yew’s Singapore, history is full of such examples. Viktor Orbán has made himself an avatar of the global populist right. Not only turning himself into an avatar for classic anti-migration, blood-and-soil identity politics but anti-woke culture wars. What began with operatives and influencers such as Steve Bannon and Tucker Carlson making pilgrimages to Washington is now at the leader level, with Argentina’s president Javier Milei headlining the recent CPAC Hungary conference, an offshoot of the US Conservative Political Action Conference.
Constantly citing Hungary as an example to follow means defeat for Orbán is now a defeat for the global populist right as a whole. But there is more to it. Orbanism has pushed democracy to its limits, creating a kind of semi-authoritarianism just shy of overstepping the line into an actual dictatorship. Working through a network of oligarchs, who have purchased key chunks of the country’s media, whilst subsuming state-owned media, Orbán has come to control some 80 per cent of the country’s media resources according to Reporters Without Borders. For those, like Steve Bannon, openly dreaming of somehow entrenching Trumpism into a third term, this playbook needs to succeed to show a semi-authoritarian future is open should Maga want it.
Vladimir Putin has had a more practical need for Viktor Orbán to remain in power. “I am at your service,” the Hungarian prime minister told the Russian president, according to a transcript obtained by Bloomberg of an October 2025 call in which he compared himself to a “mouse” standing ready to help the Russian “lion”. This is doing himself down. Orbán has gone much further than simply frustrating EU-Russia sanctions packages or blocking the bloc’s crucial loan to Kyiv. A leaked audio clip of his foreign minister Péter Szijjártó offering to amend an EU sanctions list to his counterpart Sergei Lavrov’s liking recently shocked Europe. The Kremlin cares deeply who wins in Hungary as defeat means losing their man in Brussels. And the faster EU funds can reach Ukraine the stronger it will be on the battlefield.
This is why Russia and Maga America intersect: both want Europe to be weak. What we have seen in Hungary is the recent US National Security Strategy, which spoke of “cultivating resistance to Europe’s current trajectory” and identified the culprit as “the European Union and other transnational bodies that undermine political liberty”. In a reversal of generations of US foreign policy, Trump’s America explicitly stands against a united Europe and wishes for a more fragmented continent. Where each of its nations exists more as pliable vassals than partners with thoughts of their own. This is why Orbán being voted out was so important. Hungarian voters have risen to the occasion to defeat not just an idea and a model that fascinates both Trump and Putin, but the very vassalisation they wish to impose on the rest of Europe.
The lethal Iranian speedboat 'swarm' standing in the way of Trump's destroyers: How Tehran still has fleet of fast-attack boats to wreak havoc in Strait of Hormuz - despite US sinking its navy
Washington has dealt a severe blow to Iran’s conventional navy during the current Middle East conflict, destroying much of its fleet in a series of strikes.
However, the force Tehran relies on to control the Strait of Hormuz remains largely intact, as Donald Trump has vowed to begin a blockade of Iranian ports after ceasefire talks over the weekend ended without an agreement.
Iran’s traditional navy, which operates larger warships and frigates, has long served a more symbolic role, focused on prestige and occasional long-range missions.
However, the paramilitary IRGC maintains a separate fleet built for speed and flexibility to control the passage.
Its arsenal includes nimble boats equipped with missiles, mines and drones, allowing it to threaten and disrupt commercial shipping in ways that are more difficult to counter.
Footage released by Iranian state media in the early days of the conflict showed underground tunnel networks packed with naval drones, anti-ship missiles and sea mines.
A temporary pause in fighting came after President Trump struck a two-week deal with Tehran in exchange for reopening the strait.
Even so, Iran issued a stark warning via marine radio, stating that any vessel attempting to pass without permission from the Revolutionary Guard risked being destroyed.
The paramilitary IRGC maintains a separate fleet built for speed and flexibility to control the passage (Pictured: Iranian Navy soldiers at an armed speed boat in Persian Gulf near the strait of Hormuz)
US Central Command confirmed on Saturday that two navy guided-missile destroyers - the USS Frank E. Petersen (DDG-121) and the USS Michael Murphy (DDG-112) - transited the waterway as part of a US mission to 'ensure the strait is fully clear of sea mines'
Traffic dropped immediately and only four ships crossed on the first day of the ceasefire, compared with more than 100 daily crossings before the war.
Iranian officials later told mediators they would limit crossings to roughly a dozen ships per day.
Meanwhile, Iran released footage claiming to show its military threatening to attack a US Navy destroyer as it entered the Strait of Hormuz.
US Central Command confirmed on Saturday that two navy guided-missile destroyers - the USS Frank E. Petersen (DDG-121) and the USS Michael Murphy (DDG-112) - transited the waterway as part of a US mission to 'ensure the strait is fully clear of sea mines'.
The purported recording, showing the exchange between the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and American crew, was published by the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB), a state-controlled radio and television corporation.
'Navy warship 121. This is Sepah (IRGC) Navy station. You must alter course and go back to the Indian Ocean immediately. If you don’t obey my order, you will be targeted,' an IRGC Navy serviceman is heard telling the USS Frank E. Petersen Jr.
An American voice aboard the vessel is heard responding: 'This is coalition warship 121 engaged in transit passage in accordance with international law. No challenge is intended to you.'
The recording, which appears to have been edited, continues with the Iranian serviceman sending out a 'last warning' three times as he addresses the warship.
The IRGC officer then issues a further broadcast to nearby ships in the region, alerting them to an imminent Iranian attack: 'Attention all vessels in Oman Sea, this is Iranian Sepah Navy, if you see any warship in your vicinity keep a distance more than 10 miles from them because I am ready to open fire on them, without any warning.'
Concerns have escalated further as Iran warned of antiship mines in the main channel, advising vessels to consult the Revolutionary Guard for safe passage along new routes near its coastline.
While the presence of mines has not been confirmed, the warning marked the first indication Tehran may have deployed them, a possibility previously raised by US officials.
The US has sought to challenge Iran’s grip on the waterway. The two US guided missile destroyers which passed through the strait on Saturday, marked the first such transit during the conflict.
Roughly a fifth of the world’s oil supply typically passes through the strait, and the disruption has driven prices above $100 a barrel for the first time since 2022.
Benchmark crude oil prices surged more than 7 per cent to top $100 per barrel in Monday morning trade in Asia, while the dollar jumped and US stock futures fell following Trump's blockade announcement.
Iran has already attacked more than two dozen commercial ships in the Persian Gulf, as it demonstrates its ability to disrupt traffic without relying on large naval vessels.
According to US Central Command, American forces had sunk more than 155 Iranian vessels by April 6.
Satellite imagery and military footage show widespread destruction, including some of Iran’s most advanced ships such as the IRIS Dena, a warship torpedoed by a US submarine near Sri Lanka, killing at least 87 of the roughly 180 people aboard.
Other strikes targeted minelayers, frigates and advanced platforms such as the IRIS Shahid Sayyad Shirazi, a stealth catamaran capable of launching anti-ship and surface-to-air missiles.
The Revolutionary Guard’s largest drone carrier in the Persian Gulf, the Shahid Bagheri, was also hit.
Footage released by Iranian state media in the early days of the conflict showed underground tunnel networks packed with naval drones, anti-ship missiles and sea mines
By early March, four of Iran’s primary surface combatants were likely sunk or crippled, and Iran had in total lost six of its seven frigates, both of its corvettes and one of its three ocean-going submarines.
Yet these losses have done little to diminish Tehran’s ability to threaten the strait, as the Revolutionary Guard retains a large fleet of small, fast attack craft designed specifically for operations in confined waters.
These vessels are more difficult to detect and can be launched from hidden coastal bases carved into rocky terrain, according to experts.
Iran’s strategy has been planned over decades. After America destroyed much of its fleet during a one-day naval battle in April 1988, Tehran shifted toward an asymmetrical doctrine focused on controlling commercial shipping rather than confronting larger naval forces directly.
Since February 28, at least 50 strikes have been carried out against shipping in the Gulf and the strait, according to conflict tracking data.
The Revolutionary Guard has also deployed waterborne drones, with some hitting The Safesea Vishnu tanker in an Iraqi port on March 11, while other vessels near Oman and Iraq were also struck.
Naval drones were first showcased by the Revolutionary Guard about a year ago, while similar technology has been used by Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen.
Iran is also believed to possess thousands of mines which can be deployed from small boats or even fishing vessels.
Although their use in the strait has not been confirmed, the threat alone has had a chilling effect on shipping, with captains refusing orders to transit the waterway.
After weekend peace talks in Islamabad between negotiators from the Washington and Tehran ended without a deal, President Donald Trump said the US Navy 'will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz'.
CENTCOM later confirmed the blockade would only apply to ships going to or from Iran, including all Iranian ports on the Gulf and Gulf of Oman, and will be enforced from Monday at 10am ET (5.30pm in Iran and 2pm GMT).
US forces would not impede freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports and additional information would be provided, it said.
The IRGC responded to Trump by warning that military vessels approaching the strait would be considered a ceasefire breach and dealt with harshly and decisively.
Retired Admiral Gary Roughead, a former chief of US naval operations, cautioned that Iran could fire on ships in the Gulf or attack the infrastructure of Gulf states that host US forces.
'I don't understand how blockading the strait is going to somehow push the Iranians into opening it,' Senator Mark Warner of Virginia, the ranking Democrat on the Senate Intelligence Committee, told CNN on Sunday.
On CBS' Face the Nation programme, Republican congressman Mike Turner of Ohio, who chaired the House Intelligence Committee until last year, said the blockade was a means to force a resolution to the situation in the vital oil passage.
'The president, by saying we're not just going to let them decide who gets through, is certainly calling all of our allies and everyone to the table,' he said, adding: 'This needs to be addressed.'
Trump said that US forces would also intercept every vessel in international waters that had paid a toll to Iran, after reports emerged that the regime had started demanding $2million (£1.5m) in transit fees for vessels passing through the strait.
'No one who pays an illegal toll will have safe passage on the high seas,' he wrote on Truth Social, adding: 'Any Iranian who fires at us, or at peaceful vessels, will be BLOWN TO HELL!'
'Trump wants a quick fix,' said Dana Stroul, a former senior Pentagon official during the Biden administration now at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
'The reality is, this mission is difficult to execute alone and likely unsustainable over the medium to long-term.'
Earlier on Saturday, Trump announced that the American military had started to clear the strait, and that all of Iran's minelaying ships had been sunk.
'We're now starting the process of clearing out the Strait of Hormuz,' Trump wrote in a Truth Social post, adding that 'all 28' of Iran's 'mine dropper boats are also lying at the bottom of the sea'.
Later, the Central Command, Admiral Brad Cooper, said in a statement on X: 'Today, we began the process of establishing a new passage and we will share this safe pathway with the maritime industry soon to encourage the free flow of commerce.'
Following peace talks over the weekend in Islamabad, Tehran rejected Washington's call for an end to all uranium enrichment, the dismantling of all major enrichment facilities and the transfer of highly enriched uranium.
Iran also refused US demands that the regime cease funding for Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis, as well as fully open the Strait of Hormuz.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Iran had 'encountered maximalism, shifting goalposts, and blockade' when just inches away from an 'Islamabad MoU'.
'Zero lessons learned,' he added. 'Good will begets good will. Enmity begets enmity.'
Even if the ceasefire holds, many analysts expect it will take some time before energy flows through the Gulf return to normal, which will mean higher fuel prices and stronger inflation for the global economy.
Trump told Fox News' 'Sunday Briefing' programme that oil and gasoline prices may remain high through November's midterm elections, a rare acknowledgement of the potential political fallout from the war.
Iran's Qalibaf posted a map of Washington-area gasoline prices on social media with the comment: 'Enjoy the current pump figures. With the so-called "blockade". Soon you'll be nostalgic for $4–$5 gas.'
Meanwhile, China has found itself embroiled in the intensifying conflict, as Trump threatened Beijing on Sunday with a 'staggering' new tariff of 50 percent if it were to provide military assistance to Tehran.
His comments came the same day US outlet CNN reported that US intelligence indicated China was preparing to deliver new air defence systems to Iran within the next few weeks, citing three people familiar with the assessments.
Over the weekend, The New York Times quoted US officials as saying US intelligence suggested Beijing might have already sent a shipment of shoulder-fired missiles.
China denied the reports, saying Monday it had 'always adopted a cautious and responsible attitude towards the export of military items, implementing strict controls in accordance with its own export control laws and regulations and its international obligations'.
'We oppose baseless smears or malicious association,' foreign ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun told a regular news briefing.
Цитата:
MARK ALMOND: Trump will have to start bombing again - but that won't save his presidency
Only a fool could be confident what President Donald J. Trump’s next move will be. It’s not clear he knows himself.
But they say all politics is local, and would-be fortune tellers could do worse than look at US opinion polls, which show support for Trump – and the war – is tanking.
With November’s mid-terms threatening to overturn his narrow majority in Congress, the survival of Trump’s presidency is now at stake.
Expecting Americans to pay more than $4 a gallon in an election year is political suicide, but this is very much what’s being asked in the Republicans’ mid-Western heartlands where, thanks to Iran’s stranglehold over the Strait of Hormuz, the price of ‘gas’ has soared.
Trump needs a solution – and fast. Because without one, he can’t bring world energy prices down – or drive his poll numbers back up. This, remember, is a president elected on a specific promise to bring down the cost of living.
With peace talks stalling, there seem few options left for him.
Support for President Trump is tanking, writes Mark Almond, especially as he was elected on a specific promise to bring down the cost of living, but 'gas' prices have soared since the war
If Trump pressured Israel to stop bombing Hezbollah, Iran’s ally in Lebanon, it could strengthen his hand, argues our columnist. (Pictured: Smoke in southern Lebanon after an Israeli air strike)
Yesterday, in yet another surprise, Trump announced that America would play the mullahs at their own game and blockade Iranian oil.
We’ll see. Blockades don’t work quickly – if they work at all. And it’s unlikely that China, one of Iran’s main customers, would take this threat to its oil supplies lying down.
Besides, there’s a more immediate problem, which is that blockading Iranian exports would be yet another blow to the fragile world economy, and would drive the price of gas and fertiliser to even greater heights – the very outcome Trump is desperate to avoid.
A return to bombing seems more probable. Yet missiles have failed to bring about most of Trump’s stated objectives until now and seem unlikely to do so in the future.
It’s true the Pentagon has killed a generation of Iranian leaders and claims to have hit strategic targets such as missile factories.
Yet Iran appears to have more rockets, drones and launchers than the US originally thought.
If they survived 40 days of intense bombing, it means they could probably last another wave of attacks into the summer – which is far too late for Trump.
Besides, American voters won’t accept the true price of crushing the Islamic Republic’s resistance, which entails a ground invasion and US body bags.
Trump could certainly strengthen his hand by pressing Israel to stop bombing Hezbollah, Iran’s ally in Lebanon, and a key Tehran demand.
But the president hates to show weakness, particularly if it means abandoning a central objective - which was destroying the mullah’s network of foreign proxies.
Could Trump respond by using military might to reopen the Strait? This seems unlikely. It’s true the US Navy has just escorted a couple of oil tankers out of the Gulf, but that was before the peace talks failed. Getting empty tankers to go back into the Gulf is quite a different proposition, particularly if the Iranians start firing on shipping again.
Might America claim a quick win by seizing Iran’s store of enriched uranium?
It would be no easy matter. According to Trump himself, Iran’s nuclear sites are buried deep below mountains of rubble. Besides there’s little point to such a risky operation. US spy satellites monitor the sites day and night, ensuring the nuclear material remains exactly where it lies.
There are few diplomatic cards to play because, Israel aside, Trump started this war alone.
Iran seems to have more rockets, drones and launchers than the US first thought. (Pictured: A woman in Tehran passes a pro-government mural on the day Trump announced a ceasefire)
Chinese President Xi Jinping’s reputation for statesmanship grows with every passing day, while Trump’s declines, Mark Almond writes
China would certainly like the crisis to be over because the energy crisis is hitting its trading partners around the world. China pushed Iran to come to the talks in Pakistan, for example.
But Beijing has also been supplying Iran with drones and missile components and many believe its satellite systems are helping Tehran’s missiles find and hit their targets. President Xi Jinping’s reputation for statesmanship grows with every passing day, while Trump’s declines. Only yesterday, one of America’s key Gulf allies, the Crown Prince of the United Arab Emirates, arrived in Beijing for talks. Iran will be the only item on the agenda.
Trump himself is due to visit Xi ‘when the war is over’. He was expecting to arrive in triumph, but at this rate, Trump will be the supplicant.
Another Iran ally, Russia, sees the price of oil soaring - and its coffers swelling. Putin has little incentive to bring the warfare to a halt. No wonder Tehran feels time is on its side.
Not so for Washington. The conflict is already threatening to overshadow the World Cup, which starts on June 11, and America’s 250th birthday celebrations on July 4. Will fears of terrorism haunt Trump’s intended festival of America Made Great Again?
On Saturday, he unveiled plans for a triumphant arch to celebrate US victories over the last 250 years, presumably ending with the conquest of the Islamic Republic of Iran by Donald J. Trump. That triumph is on hold.
Trump has derided his allies’ impotence and, as so often, his jibes are cruelly accurate. For Europe, a cold and expensive winter looms, while the poor in Africa and Asia face hunger as fuel and fertiliser dwindle.
But Trump’s war on Iran has fatally exposed the limits of his own power, too. America’s threats in the Gulf have produced comparatively little. Its standing as the world’s only superpower is fading fast.
_________________
С сожалением и понятными пожеланиями, Dimitriy.
Уровень доступа: Вы не можете начинать темы, Вы не можете отвечать на сообщения, Вы не можете редактировать свои сообщения, Вы не можете удалять свои сообщения, Вы не можете голосовать в опросах
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